Short term (4 week) ratings trends indicate the renewal prospects for Castle, The Good Wife, Heroes, Parks & Recreation and Law & Order have improved.

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 15, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Who was the guy who wrote “Law & Order: Twenty And Done“? Oh yeah, me.

In my defense, the show’s ratings on Friday began terribly. Here are the adults 18-49 ratings for the episodes this season (1.2, 1.2, 1.5, 1.6, 1.5, 1.4, 1.7, 1.6). It’s almost as if the fans couldn’t find the show during its first two weeks. A show increasing its ratings by 25+% over a short period like that rarely happens.

If Law & Order can hold a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Friday (maybe even a 1.6 rating) it’s back on NBC next season. With a 1.7 rating and assuming that NBC’s overall average falls after football to a 2.5, that would produce an Index of 0.68. CBS renews its Friday dramas with those relative ratings, I figure NBC will too.

Trauma is canceled now, no new episodes will be ordered. Mercy’s ratings make it effectively as canceled at the end of the season. It has a 22 episode order, but it has done no better than Trauma. No chance it comes back next season.

The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 8, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Like ABC with Eastwick and the forgotten, NBC has two new ratings dogs in the pound and chose to extend Mercy’s life and kill Trauma early. Even though a few more Mercy episodes will be produced, the end result will be the same. Neither show is coming back next season.

Law & Order hit 2 season high ratings last Friday a 1.7 at 8pm and a 1.8 at 9pm. That’s very positive. Holding a 1.8 rating would likely ensure renewal. Even with a 1.7 it’s not out of the question. NBC’s current 18-49 average rating is a 2.7, but that will plunge once football ends. If NBC ends up averaging a 2.5 rating overall, a 1.7 rating on a Friday might save L&O. 1.7/2.5 = 0.68.

The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 1, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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There has been a surprising amount of ‘net chatter in the past week about a rumor claiming NBC told the writers of Heroes to prepare for the end of the show. I have no way of judging the truthfulness of that, and there may be some other (unknown to me) factor that could take the show off the air. However, looking at the ratings, while the show is way down from its earlier years, considering that its on NBC, Heroes is far from being dead. It’s average, and networks don’t typically cancel their average shows, particularly ones that air at 8pm.

I am a stubborn man, but I’d like to think not infinitely so. If the 3 CBS scripted shows can survive on Friday’s with their ratings, there’s a chance that Law & Order can too. This has nothing to do with the check from Dick Wolf that arrived yesterday.

The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates, not a drama like Mercy.

Trauma didn’t receive an order for its “back 9″ episodes, so it’ll last at most 13 episodes and then be canceled. It may be pulled from the schedule sooner than that.

Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I’m not including it.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 25, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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The ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates, not a drama like Mercy.

Trauma didn’t receive an order for its “back 9″ episodes, so it’ll last at most 13 episodes and then be canceled. It may be pulled from the schedule sooner than that.

Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I’m not including it.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 18, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Mercy and Trauma are both certain to be canceled by the end of the season. Which will go first? Conventional wisdom is that Trauma’s high cost gets it yanked first, but many things can influence that.

Community’s average continues to decline, both it and Parks & Recreation have to be regarded as cancel-worthy, but there is a chance amidst all the carnage this season that NBC will have to hold their noses and bring back some way below average shows. Prime candidates for desperate moves like that are half hour sitcoms.

30 Rock’s premiere was hardly stellar, it did no better post-Office than Community, but it’s in no danger as long as it stays there.

Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I’m not including it.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 11, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Get your fill of lovely San Francisco outdoor shots in Trauma while they last. My guess is they won’t be around much longer. Certainly not next season.

Mercy is in only marginally better shape than Trauma. Maybe the difference between lasting the entire season and getting pulled early. Maybe not.

Because its average has its airings after The Office baked into it, Community looks in better shape than it is. We’ll have to see how it settles in its 8pm timeslot. I’ve changed Parks & Recreation to orange as well (from red). With the general carnage that is NBC’s schedule they’re going to have to either replace almost every scripeted show (which may happen in the take out the Ben Silverman garbage efforts) or they’ll have to hold their noses and bring back some way below average shows. Prime candidates for desperate moves like that are half hour sitcoms.

Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I’m not including it.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through October 4, 2009):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Parks & Recreation started slowly, and disastrously for its future, this season. Maybe putting Community ahead of it starting this Thursday can pick up its ratings, or maybe it will kill Community too. We’ll know soon enough. Law & Order may be back with originals on cable next season, but don’t expect to see them first on NBC.

Although SNL: Weekend Update is a scripted show, since it was limited run, I’m not including it.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story